[SMM Steel Market Morning News] National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Since the beginning of this year, China's real estate market has continued to move in the direction of halting the decline and stabilizing, with transactions in some first- and second-tie

★Macro★

01

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NBS: National Fixed Asset Investment (Excluding Rural Households) Reaches 14,702.4 Billion Yuan from January to April, Up 4.0% YoY

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS),from January to April, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 14,702.4 billion yuan, up 4.0% YoY.Among this, private fixed asset investment increased by 0.2% YoY. On a MoM basis, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 0.10% in April.

According to data from the NBS,from January to April, national real estate development investment reached 2,773 billion yuan, down 10.3% YoY,with residential investment at 2,117.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6%. From January to April, the sales area of newly-built commercial housing was 282.62 million m², down 2.8% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to January-March. Among this, the sales area of residential housing decreased by 2.1%. The sales value of newly-built commercial housing was 2,703.5 billion yuan, down 3.2%, with residential sales value decreasing by 1.9%. At month-end April, the area of commercial housing pending sale was 781.42 million m², a decrease of 5.22 million m² compared to month-end March. Among this, the area of residential housing pending sale decreased by 4.55 million m².

According to data released by the NBS,in April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,717.4 billion yuan, up 5.1% YoY.Among this, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles reached 3,354.8 billion yuan, an increase of 5.6%. From January to April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 16,184.5 billion yuan, up 4.7%. Among this, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles reached 14,700.5 billion yuan, an increase of 5.2%.

According to data from the NBS,in April, the actual year-on-year growth in the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size was 6.1% (the growth rate of value-added is the actual growth rate after deducting price factors).On a MoM basis, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.22% in April compared to the previous month. From January to April, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.4% YoY. By sector, in April, the value-added of the mining industry increased by 5.7% YoY, manufacturing by 6.6%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water by 2.1%.

02

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NBS: China's Real Estate Market Continues to Move Towards Stabilization This Year, with Transactions Recovering in Some First- and Second-Tier Cities

Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the NBS, stated that under the effect of various policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, China's real estate market has continued to move towards stabilization this year, with transactions recovering in some first- and second-tier cities and housing prices remaining generally stable. However, it should also be noted that the overall real estate market is still in the process of adjustment and transformation. The demand for rigid and improvement housing remains to be released, and the pressure to sell off real estate inventory in some regions remains relatively high. Continuous efforts are still needed to promote the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market.

03

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SAFE: Foreign Investors' Willingness to Allocate RMB Assets Continues to Improve; Foreign Investment in Domestic Stocks Turned Net Purchases in Late April

Li Bin, Deputy Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) and spokesperson, stated that in April, cross-border capital inflows into non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, amounted to $17.3 billion. The main channels are as follows: First, China's foreign trade has shown certain resilience, with net cross-border capital inflows under goods trade reaching $64.9 billion, maintaining a relatively high level. Second, foreign investors' willingness to allocate RMB assets continues to improve. In April, foreign investors' net purchases of domestic bonds reached $10.9 billion, remaining at a high level. In late April, foreign investment in domestic stocks turned net purchases. Third, the main outflow channels remained stable and orderly. In April, the net outflow of service trade funds was basically flat MoM. Seasonal increases in profit remittances by foreign-invested enterprises were observed, but they were lower than those in the same period last year. Inbound and outbound foreign direct investment remained basically stable, and cross-border capital flows related to intercompany borrowings shifted from net outflows to a basic balance.

★Industries and Downstream Sectors★

01

China's Exports of Four Major Home Appliances in April Released

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in April 2025, China exported 7.51 million air conditioners, up 12.1% YoY. From January to April, cumulative exports reached 29.71 million units, up 17.3% YoY.

In April, 6.93 million refrigerators were exported, down 2.8% YoY. From January to April, cumulative exports reached 26.8 million units, up 7.6% YoY.

In April, 2.92 million washing machines were exported, up 10.9% YoY. From January to April, cumulative exports reached 11.2 million units, up 4.6% YoY.

In April, 8.6 million LCD TVs were exported, down 7.6% YoY. From January to April, cumulative exports reached 32.09 million units, up 1.2% YoY.

02

Raw Coal Production by Above-Scale Industries in China Reached 390 Million mt in April

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), raw coal production maintained stable growth in April. Above-scale industrial raw coal production reached 390 million mt, up 3.8% YoY, with the growth rate pulling back by 5.8 percentage points from March. The daily average production was 12.98 million mt. From January to April, above-scale industrial raw coal production reached 1.58 billion mt, up 6.6% YoY.

03

From January to April, China's Crude Steel Production Reached 345.35 Million mt, Up 0.4% YoY

According to data from the NBS: In April 2025, China's crude steel production reached 86.02 million mt, basically flat YoY. From January to April, China's crude steel production reached 345.35 million mt, up 0.4% YoY.

04

General Administration of Customs: China Exported 807 Ships in April

The latest data from the General Administration of Customs show that China exported 807 ships in April, up 72.4% YoY. From January to April, cumulative exports reached 2,350 ships, up 33.1% YoY. In April, 20 liquid cargo ships were exported, up 25.0% YoY. From January to April, a cumulative total of 92 liquid cargo ships were exported, up 46.0% YoY. In April, 21 container ships were exported, down 38.2% YoY. From January to April, a cumulative total of 63 container ships were exported, down 41.1% YoY. In April, 60 bulk carriers were exported, up 20.0% YoY. From January to April, a cumulative total of 174 bulk carriers were exported, up 8.8% YoY. In April, 369 vessels were imported, down 58.5% YoY. From January to April, a cumulative total of 2,260 vessels were imported, down 6.2% YoY.

05

[SMM Domestic Mine Operating Rate] Mines and beneficiation plants operated as planned, with relatively stable iron ore concentrates production

According to the latest data from SMM, the capacity utilisation rate of domestic mines reached 59.3% last week, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous week. The production of iron ore concentrates rose to 792,000 mt, up 5,000 mt WoW. Sales volume reached 777,000 mt, down 40,000 mt WoW. Meanwhile, the inventory of iron ore concentrates at mines increased by 15,000 mt, with the total inventory reaching 260,000 mt.

Currently, mines are operating normally as planned, with relatively stable iron ore concentrates production. According to SMM's market tracking, feedback indicates that the cost-effectiveness of domestically produced iron ore concentrates has declined, and the overall willingness to sell is weak. The overall inventory of mines in the Hebei and Shandong regions has increased slightly, with some mines formulating sales promotion plans. Looking ahead to this week, the intensity of land and safety inspections in the Liaoning region has once again increased, which may have a certain impact on local production. Overall, the production of iron ore concentrates may decline further.

★Other Hot Topics★

⭕[Fuel Prices to be Cut Tonight, Saving 9 Yuan for a Full Tank] According to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), a new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 today (May 19). The specifics of this oil price adjustment are as follows: The retail price caps for gasoline and diesel in China will be lowered by 230 yuan and 220 yuan per ton, respectively. On a national average: 92-octane gasoline will be lowered by 0.18 yuan per liter, 95-octane gasoline by 0.19 yuan per liter, and 0-octane diesel by 0.19 yuan per liter. Filling a 50L tank of 92-octane gasoline will save 9 yuan.

⭕[US 30-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 5.02%, the Highest Level Since November 2023]The yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond rose to 5.02%, the highest level since November 2023. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond continued its upward trend, rising by 10 basis points to 4.54% during the day. On the news front, Moody's announced on the 16th its decision to downgrade the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing an increase in the proportion of US government debt and interest payments. Moody's also adjusted the outlook for the US sovereign credit rating from "negative" to "stable."

⭕[NBS: Sales Prices of Commercial Residential Properties in Cities of All Tiers Remained Flat or Declined Slightly MoM in April]According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in April, sales prices of commercial residential properties in cities of all tiers remained flat or declined slightly MoM in 70 large and medium-sized cities, with YoY declines continuing to narrow. In April, sales prices of newly-built commercial residential properties in first-tier cities turned flat MoM from a 0.1% increase in the previous month. Specifically, Beijing and Shanghai saw increases of 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen experienced decreases of 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. Sales prices of newly-built commercial residential properties in second-tier cities remained flat MoM, unchanged from the previous month. Sales prices of newly-built commercial residential properties in third-tier cities declined by 0.2% MoM, with the decline unchanged from the previous month. In April, sales prices of existing residential properties in first-tier cities turned to a 0.2% decline MoM from a 0.2% increase in the previous month. Specifically, Shanghai saw a 0.1% increase, Guangzhou remained flat, while Beijing and Shenzhen experienced decreases of 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively. Sales prices of existing residential properties in second- and third-tier cities both declined by 0.4% MoM, with the declines widening by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, from the previous month.

In April, sales prices of newly-built commercial residential properties in first-tier cities declined by 2.1% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. Specifically, Shanghai saw a 5.9% increase, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced decreases of 5.0%, 6.3%, and 3.0%, respectively. Sales prices of newly-built commercial residential properties in second- and third-tier cities declined by 3.9% and 5.4% YoY, respectively, with the declines narrowing by 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, from the previous month. In April, sales prices of existing residential properties in first-tier cities declined by 3.2% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. Specifically, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced decreases of 1.0%, 0.6%, 7.4%, and 3.7%, respectively. Sales prices of existing residential properties in second- and third-tier cities declined by 6.5% and 7.4% YoY, respectively, with the declines narrowing by 0.5 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively, from the previous month.

⭕[Steel Mill's Ten-Day Discount]Yonggang's discount for ordinary steel in the 3rd ten-day period of May 2025: 20% discount for rebar (same as the previous period), 55% discount for wire rod (70% discount in the previous period). [SMM Steel]